Equities are a short-term buy and still a long-term buy on harmonics. SSTIS signals a fake bull setup meaning this, recent pop-up is only for a few days and then short-term target will be /ES 2228. 2D Mv chart is a confirmed sell and 2D MV fakeout chart is a fake bear.
The special, fuzzy setup suggests volatile sessions. SVT will keep its medium level bearish position against equities.
Gold, silver, miners
Focus is on PMs. They made an impressive bounce as we expected, however there are some signals might show a bottoming PM complex. Our task is to detect whether the next dive is to come or PMs are done with their correction and in a recovery period.
GDX is a confirmed buy on harmonics, also could manage to pop over of its, almost 6 months old price channel. While the classic price channel was taken, the less-used but still classic trading box helps to identify the nature of the breakout: as you see, mienrs couldn’t take the upper boundary of the recent trading box:
Chart above is GDX 1D TS
Harmonics is a confirmed buy, SSTIS is a confirmed buy with an exhausted bull surge ordering high odds for a few days of sidemove/slight correction. GDX has a gap down at 20.3 therefore odds are pretty high that we have a short-term target for GDX now.2D MV chart is a confirmed buy, 2D MV fakeout chart is a clear fake bull setup ordering high odds for a correction to arrive soon.
Gold is a short-term buy with no long-term confirmation on harmonics, a confirmed buy with a fake bull on SSTIS, and a confirmed buy on 2D MV chart.
Silver is a short-term buy with no long-term confirmation, SSTIS is a confirmed buy with a fake bull setup, 2D MV chart is a shor-term buy with no long-term confirmation. 2D MV fakeout chart signals a clear fake bull setup for silver.
As you can see from the setups above, PM complex is not safe for taking a bullish position and odds are pretty high for a correction.
Oil is a confirmed sell on SSTIS with a bear surge signal, also a confirmed sell on 2D MV chart. Harmonics is a short-term sell with a long-term buy signal. Oil is in a sidemove period since 12-DEC 2016. Boundaries are 49.9 – 54.5. Not worth to trade, extremely volatile and non-directional.
Trading update: SVT will seek for a bullish PM position soon, however, today is not the day of taking that core as there is no sufficient signal.
This post is free
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I will write the post today as a free one. This will give you time to subscribe as most of you are still on a holiday I’m sure.
First of all, I wish You a Happy New Year!
All our traded assets follow the direction we forecasted since mid-December. Low volume days attributed the Christmas and New Year’s Eve period and now, as the main decision makers will return to their workplaces, large trades will be approved and executed.
The most important signal we received is the breach of /ES 2240s. As I wrote, now the next target is 2190s but this dive can be interrupted any time as I count with some quick recovery as both SSTIS and 2D MV chart has a fake bear signal.
After the recovery my expectation is a correction to SPX 2039s. There is a long-term bullish trendline at SPX 1920 as per moment. If equities won’t drop below of that level, then the long-term bull will remain intact and we will see a recovery for mid-late February and a new high after March.
The scenario above represents the highest probability scenario as per moment and we will perform check on our indicator system on a daily basis.
Dollar exactly followed our forecast we made in mid-December and now dollar is ready for a bounce.
I suggested a pop-up for gold, miners and silver with targets. Those targets were done last week and, as I forecasted, PMs made a sharp correction. The highest probability scenario now is to see dollar to resume its bullish trend for a while. Target 103.2 is done, and now, the next major target is $DXY 107.3.
Chart above is DXY 1month/15y TS.
If Trump will be a good boy, then FED will intervene at that level and block dollar to go further up. If Trump remains a mad dog, then next target is 109.
Gold and miners are in a fake bull setup meaning high odds for a quick correction. If dollar starts its decline, we will see a PM rally. I will start to build a core PM position when I have more confirmation.
Oil is in process of its forecasted W shape formation, and now is a short-term buy with a confirmation on harmonics, a short-term buy with no long-term confirmation on SSTIS and a short-term sell with a long-term buy formation on 2D MV chart. As there is some profit on our oil trade, I will take that at open.
Trading update: sell all oil at open
There was an efficient intraday attack against stocks yesterday. The low couldn’t breach the trading box yesterday, but it was strong enough to manage the drop below of the trading box today.
Chart above is /ES 1D TS.
Harmonics is still a short-term sell with no long-term confirmation, SSTIS is a confirmed sell with a clear fake bear confirmation. It means the highest probability scenario remain the same as my forecast was on this Tuesday: a pretty quick recovery after a drop. Primary target is /ES 2240. If that level is taken, I count with some recovery but then the next target is /ES 2194. 2D MV chart is a confirmed sell, 2D MV fakeout chart is a fake bear, momentum chart still shows some residual bullish momentum. If there is a stronger drop, that should happen next week-next year.
As we detailed in the last few posts, dollar is to drop when equities are falling. This is because of FED needs a quick mitigation and inflation is always a kind of quick and efficient way to intervene. My dollar forecast remains as is, some slight erosion downwards (target is /DX 100-101) but then, when the stronger sell comes we will see dollar above 103. For that time gold will complete its fake pop-up and will target /GC 1110.
My forecast is in play for PMs, no change in forecast. The short-term pop-up is in play. Once /GC 1155 target GDX 19.8 is done, drop to 17.8 is a high probability.
The W shape formation I suggested early December is in play. Harmonics is a confirmed bu, SSTIS is a a short-term buy with no long-term confirmation, 2D MV chart is a a short-term sell with a long-term buy signal. I hold my slight bullish position for oil.
It was all for 2016 next post will come in 2017.
I wish you a successful, Happy New Year!!!