FREE: Before the Bell: 19-OCT-2026

The key is still dollar: it looked to me unstoppable, made a 40 days long bullish trend without any decisive SH. Now harmonics signals a short-term sell but still, there’s no confirmation on a bearish trend. If you put together the large picture: dollar was up, while bonds were down and finally stocks were down, it’s a clear signal of a core issue around US economy: institutions -especially foreign institutions- are cashing out and seek for a more safe place to wait. As this move is touching US currency, bonds and then stocks, we can state that it’s a general move and abandonment of any US-related market.

However, US is still strong and it’s not a full leave of a country of no hope. It’s just because of the geopolitical impact from rest of the world due to the current administrations’ policies/actions with them. Money will go back in short term, as it’s the interest of the current administration to reach an ATH for the next 2-3 weeks, also, once a larger drop on equities happen, US is full with innovation and power which makes it worth to keep in a long (3-5-10 years) term, but after a major drop only.

How this dynamics will manifest, it’s a question, however, for sure, before the mid-term the current correction will be halted on any price and the only way is to inject fresh liquidity to the market. Either it will be broadcasted or will be done by FED silently, it needs to happen. That moment needs to be catched as PMs are extremely oveersold for now and react to any downwards move of dollar pretty well for now.

Equities:

Stocks are a short-term sell with no longer-term sell signal but with a decisive money outflow. T2 signals a short-term sell with no longer-term confirmation on 1D timeframe, 2D T2 chart is a confirmed sell but no major volume outflow happens. WT signals a short-term sell with no longer-term confirmation on 1D as well, 2D signals no confirmation on any sell. Vix has a 18.2 reading -market is nervous but not in panic yet. If FED wants to turn stocks back from a stronger correction, they have pretty good chance for that with a relatively small dollar injection. (again, it can happen via a hidden intervention or via open and broadcasted, public announcement…. we don’t know which one will be chosen).

The best is to draw a trading box and watch the show. SVT has no interest in stocks as gain at PMs represent higher probability and magnitude.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ES2!/qgKtizvj-ES-1D-TW/?social_toast=true

Dollar finally generated a decisive SH and shows a short-term sell with no longer-term confirmation. WT signals a confirmed sell on 1D on 08-OCT and shows a confirmed sell from 15-OCT.

In line with my prologue, the most probable scenario is a HS (Head and Shoulder) now. If a HS forms, odds are high seeing strong push-down on dollar.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DX2!/2VI0ZtKR-DX-1D-TW/?social_toast=true

PM miners, gold and silver:

If you observe, PMs kept pretty well during the dollar bull and they are exhausted on the bearish side for now.

PM miners gone through on a stronger correction and they gave short-term buy signal just last Friday: harmonics is a short-term buy with no longer-term confirmation. T2 signals an SH on 1D timeframe, and a short-term buy with no longer-term confirmation as well. 2D T2 signals no confirmed buy at all but money started to inflow last Thursday.

I can imagine a 2-4% drop from this level but then, in line with the dollar forecast, the possible gain is pretty high. SVT goes 200% long on miners at GDX SL (please note again: it’s a bucket allocation meaning no leverage but doubling the non-leveraged bet: time won’t be against the SVT portfolio via delta-erosion). This is an autotrade.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GDX/xxkv3YMU-GDX-1D-TW/?social_toast=true

Energy index:

SVT is not focusing on energy in this period: as I said in early September geopolitical exposure makes it a low-probability to catch its proper direction.

BTC:

The first and very important observation is BTC kept extremely well during the 40 days of dollar rally. Harmonics is a short-term sell with no long-term confirmation. T2 signals a confirmed sell on 1D timeframe, 2D timeframe signals a short-term sell with no longer-term confirmation. WT signals a fake bull on 1D and a confirmed sell on 2D timeframe. I’ll wathc BTC closely and, once the HS formation happens on dollar, there might be a chance SVT will go back to 250% long in BTC but not for now.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/wLMhY81D-BTC-1D-TW/?social_toast=true

 

FREE:Quick update

Most of our traded assets are following our forecast.

Not too much to do, we are safe -cashed out weeks ago- and wait for a proper setup to perform any trade.

(first long stakes will be at PM miners but not now)

Have a great day!!!

FREE: 02-OCT-2026 Before the Bell

Equities

Harmonics is a short-term sell but still a longer-term buy but still declining internals can be observed. T2 shows a short-term buy with a longer-term sell on 1D timeframe and a confirmed sell on 2D timeframe. WT signals a short-term buy with no longer-term confirmation yet on 1D while 2D timeframe shows a constant erosion on the bullish side. All news are just forged and misleading. The general way of stocks is down.

I need to admit, the forecast didn’t suggest the pop-up today, and I was to see a little stronger decline in the past week. However, please note that SVT is not so interested about equities as per moment.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ES2!/1PHGZhqg-ES-1D-TW/?social_toast=true

Dollar

Dollar is a key here. It just goes up and compresses the market. The move is happening together with bonds wich is a bad signal: institutions continued their cash-out, but the focus is on bonds for now. Equity market is left by institutions for now: they only hold a minor position in stocks and in the process of piling dollar.

Dollar is extremely overbought for now on harmonics and shows a confirmed buy. WT signals

The forecast here was proper, by time and target it was fine, however, I counted with a small correction which didn’t happen.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DX2!/eWRgjFbE-DX-1D-TW/?social_toast=true

Miners

Miners are a confirmed sell with extremely oversold internals. This is getting be exciting: dollar is high, PM miners are in a correction for almost 35 days… T2 signals a confirmed sell, WT signals a confirmed sell on both timeframes.

The forecast was pretty good, I just need to continue the chart with the new days ahead of us.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/kcftf3S7/

SVT will rise its bullish stakes to 250% soon, but not yet.

Energy

Energy index is not in an interest of SVT due to its volatity and its too strong geopolitical correlation in these months. Interestingly both harmincs and T2 are a confirmed sell on both 1D and 2D timeframes. WT suggest the same, rather bearish outlook.

The forecast was pretty good here.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XLE/mpB55MAS-XLE-1D-TW/?social_toast=true

Bitcoin

BTCUSD is a confirmed buy on harmonics. T2 is a short-term sell with a longer-term buy on 1D timeframe and a short-term sell with no longer-term confirmation. WT suggests a fake bull on 1D and a slowly declining bull on 2D, but no major indication of an imminent drop. Here my forecast didn’t go well, SVT is till 70% long in Bitcoin as stocks suggest a drop to happen and BTC has a historical correlation to stocks.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/Ed3iTMti-BTCUSD-1D-TW/?social_toast=true

Thank you for your attention, have a great week-end!

Quick update

Our traded assets are going into their forecasted direction, not too much to do today

Quick update

SVT won a lot on its moths old BTC trade, setup since this Friday didn’t change.

Effective immediately SVT will slash its 250% long position in BTC to 70%.

FREE:18-SEP-2026 Before the Bell

In general, market has a turbulent period. Our forecast was pretty good and, as I tolod before practicing caution is an important action.

However, I still keep the framework of expectation of seeing a rally in October after a drop in September. (I also have an impression, for a big surprise, Trump will win the midterm… this is not a political site, but I collected enough information to have this result. As per moment, slight win but win is expected. And it’s not because of Trump’s performance…)

Equities

Stocks made the expected dive. My estimation was 50 points lower, otherwise timing and targets were fine. Contract U is expired for now, contract Z has 91 days left.
Harmonics is a confirmed sell. This is a big surprise. Money outflow is decisive as well. Synthetic (calculated by an algorithm) sentiment is turning down again. It topped on 22-JUN, then declined, then turned back slightly to bullish on 28-AUG and started to drop again on 8-SEP. Now it’s pointing downward. Sentiment tops don’t mean imminent price manifestation but signal institutional abandonment of the bullish side. Price can go up, even can go up fiercely and produce higher highs but more it runs upwards (institutions make the market liquid in order to sell their remaining bullish positions on higher and higher prices) larger the correction/drop will be.  This could be observed pretty well on PMs end of last year-begining of this year.

T2 1D shows a confirmed sell, T2 2D shows a confirmed sell as well. WT 2D shows a clear fake bull. Stocks are to drop further down.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ES2!/V2pjh0gC-ES2-1D-TW/?social_toast=true

Dollar

Dollar gave a surprise, and it’s an important development: it rose above of  synthetic V-MA, breached MA50 and has a BB breach + formed a gap lower. The question here: will dollar drop and close the gap or move higher and then, in October dollar will start it’s strong bear till mid-term elections. Harmonics is a confirmed buy, SynthSent is turning upwards, flow dynamics suggests further way up. WT shows a bullish period to come.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DX2!/kW9jnw2n-DX2-1D-TW/?social_toast=true

Miners

It’s temptating to jump into miners now and rise the bullish exposure to 200% now but in light of the forecast of dollar and equities, caution should be practised. Harmonics is a short-term sell with a longer-term buy signal, sentiment is slowly turning downwards. T2 is a confirmed sell on 1D timeframe and shows unbroken volume outflow since 27-AUG. T2 2D is a short-term sell with no longer-term confirmation yet but a volume outflow since 1-SEP. WT signals a sell since 26-AUG and shows no break on this trend. Miners might oscillate 2-4 trading days, but as per moment, their highest probability continuation pattern is down then. It shows a match with the equity/dollar outlook.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GDX/WHzjLhmp-GDX-1D-TW/?social_toast=true

Energy

Energy index shows short-term sell with longer-term buy signal on harmonics. The forecast was pretty good, now let’s see how it continues. T2 shows a confirmed sell on both timeframes. WT signals a break on the bullis side since 3-SEP. All in all, energy seems to be over of its topping and with lots of squiggles but points downwards.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XLE/D8NDwfh6-XLE-1D-TW/?social_toast=true

Bitcoin

BTCUSD is a confirmed buy on harmonics. Money outflow started on 25-AUG and still in progress. SynthSentiment started to meander and showed the first signal of topping. T2 shows a short-term sell with no longer-term confirmation on both 1D and 2D timeframe but a decisive volume outflow started on 9-SEP. WT 2D started to signal a sell on 08-SEP and the bullish internals decline.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/xHorBoQJ-BTCUSD-1D-TW/?social_toast=true

Have a great week-end!

FREE: 01-SEP-2026

Equities

Stocks are a short-term sell with no longer-term confirmation on harmonics. T2 1D signals a short-term sell with a longer-term buy and a non-fake bear. T2 2D signals a confirmed sell with a money outflow. The confirmation on 2D for sell arrived yesterday. WT 2D signals a confirmed sell as well.

Stocks will make a dive today, perform a pop-up a little later this week but next week it will continue its way down.

This is an expected correction meaning max 7% of drop but it will be stretched till the next contract is not up and running. U contract has 17 days left.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ES2!/iORV2KDM-ES-1D-TW/?social_toast=true

Dollar

Dollar is a short-term buy with a longer-term sell signal on harmonics. Both WT 1D and 2D signals a short-term buy embedded into a major sell cycle. As I told earlier any dollar pop-up will be eliminated by the Trump administration and dollar’s fate is down till the mid-term elections.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DX2!/saQ4elpA-DX-1D-TW/?social_toast=true

Miners

Miners are a short-term sell with no longer-term confirmation oon harmonics. T2 1D signals a short-term sell with no longer-term confirmation, 2D signals a clear confirmed buy. Mienrs will drop as they are sensitive to equities. Please note the 4 gaps down in the near past. 2of them needs to be closed before miners will go upwards. Here SVT will load its miners bucket to 200% from 100% this months, of course, figures will be constantly checked if the longer-term vision meets to the factual figures.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GDX/Z12hxyRZ-GDX-1D-TW/?social_toast=true

Energy

Energy index is a confirmed buy on harmonics. Te price is mainly driven by the dollar devaluation. As you can see, it’s not driven by the results on economy as SPX is actually in stagnation for a month now. Compare SPX versus energy and you’ll see the divergence. Usually this non-economy driven rise in energy is temporary and leads to a major drop on stockmarkets. However, still a few months left till that, critical point. T2 is a confirmed sell on 1D but a confirmed buy on 2D timeframe meaning a temporary drop is a high probability. WT 1D and 2D also confirm this scenario.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XLE/kVLoGIW0-XLE-1D-TW/?social_toast=true

Bitcoin

BTCUSD is a short-term sell with a longer-term buy on harmonics. T2 is a confirmed buy on 1D timeframe but signals weakening bullish internals. 2D T2 singals a confirmed buy but significant drop in bullish internals. Volume outflow happens since 27-AUG. WT signals declining internals as well from the same date. A 10% of drop is in the cards in BTC and expectation is to see a kind of stagnation in September but then a bullish rally.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/MRUaKpAU-BTCUSD-1D-TW/?social_toast=true

 

Good luck!

Quick Update

Right, this is what we were waiting for: a decisive dollar down moment.

That happened after the FOMC yesterday. Now the message is clear: stock market can dive, but will be protected via dollar injection.

On a normal equity drop stocks are down and dollar is up as a signal for cash-out and demand for the green money. This happened yesterday, but immediately a large liquidity was thrown to the market in order to balance the drop and provide liquidity. As you can see, stocks didn’t recover, gold made some rise but other PMs didn’t move. They will. Same true for BTC. Still some waiting is necessary but we are close to see large PM and BTC ups.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ES2!/VFw2bK9r-ES-1D-TW/

dollar:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DX2!/uUk8lTFQ-DX-1D-TW/

All the other moves are noise.

It’s ineviteable there will be a large dive on stocks later this year/early next year but not now.

What you have seen so far is only a summer correction.

Good luck!

02-JUL-2026 Before the Bell

Sorry, these days are not easy. I know it shouldn’t be an excuse.
(Side note: As long as you can, train your spine, try to do everything to avoid spine surgery, my ex-wife is still struggling. Doctors say it will be 10-12 months for a better result….we will see. The pain should be horrible, my ex wife is a strong lady and almost never showed pain but now I can see it on her face.)

Anyway,

Equities

Stocks are a confirmed buy with  a high reading on syntethic sentiment meaning still overbought. These weeks will be rather about long period of sidemoves, then some correction, then a new ATH. As I told you, I still don’t count with any major drop before midterm elections. T2 signals a short-term buy with a longer-term sell on 1D timeframe and a confirmed sell on 2D timeframe. We have a PSAR bull switch on 2D T2, however, the price manifestation is still not too much. The futures gap I mentioned is closed now and a consolidation period to come meaning a triangle formation.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ES2!/ZKjOuSC5-ES-1D-TW/?social_toast=true

Dollar

As I mentioned before, the key is dollar. The green money bounced exactly from target I drew (blue arrow) in my former post and now it’s being pushed down dramatically. As long as the bullish trendline is not taken, dollar is in a bull (red arrow). Harmonics is a short-term sell with a longer-term buy signal. Synsentiment didn’t turn to shouth yet. WT signals a fake bear as per moment.

I count with a bear flag to be formed in the next 3-4 trading days. Then the way is down.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DX2!/Br5BFc8B-DX-1D-TW/?social_toast=true

Miners

Miners are extremely oversoldon harmonics for now, SyntSent signals critical low trust in miners. This will be a perfect time to see them to recover. T2 signals a confirmed sell on 1D timeframe, same true for 2D timeframe. WT signals a bear/bull switch happened yesterday. All in all, I’m not so worried about miners, they will recover soon and perform nicely. The forecast was pretty good here as well, only needs a slight update with the most probable run in the future. Seeing GDX at 110s is almost a guarantee. As permoment, the current exposure is okay, but SVT will add when it gets further bullish confirmations.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GDX/mYBjcIpX-GDX-1D-TW/?social_toast=true

Bitcoin

BTCUSD is a confirmed sell on harmonics and syntsent is pointing downwards. I count with a turbulent recovery. T2 is a short-term buy with a longer-term sell on 1D timeframe and a short-term buy with a longer-term sell on 2D timeframe. It means a high probability fake bull setup for BTC.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/oJWBWFtm-BTCUSD-1D-TW/?social_toast=true

Good luck! I hope that I can drop 1 post per week from now on.

18-JUN-2026 Quick update

The key is still dollar.

Stocks are extremely overbought and were matured for a correction. Gap at /ES2 to be closed for sure. I count with that target and then some further way down.

I still don’t count with a large drop on SPX.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ES2!/K9PR2fGj-ES-1D-TW/

Dollar is still in an uptrend. As long as it’s happening, all assets suffer a depression and all bulls are temporary only.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DX2!/O0ISbotQ-DX-1D-TW/

Miners will continue their way down

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GDX/9REu6Ivq-GDX-1D-TW/

Energy index will stabilize soon

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XLE/ZQq51SvI-XLE-1D-TW/

BTC, ETH is to make one more dive

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/v1gguljb-BTCUSD-1D-TW/

The right translated HS made its work for now and, as a major support breached recently, I count with further way down.