Protected: 09-FEB-2018 Before the Bell

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Protected: 6-FEB Quick update

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Password for February, 2018

2018/02/06 at 12:06pm Leave a comment

The password for premium members can be found at

http://www.svtpremium.com/members/newsletter/2018/20180206PWD.cfm

Thanks a lot,

Bert

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Free Crypto update

2018/02/04 at 2:07am Leave a comment

It’s a quick update, I have buy signals for:

BTCUSD, BCHUSD,  ETHUSD, LTCUSD, PAYUSD, XRPUSD, XMRUSD, ZECUSD, GAMEUSD, OMGUSD, WAVESUSD, DASHUSD, POTUSD.

NONE of them a confirmed buy, only a short-term buy, however, a nibble is worth I feel.

Please check my twitter ( https://twitter.com/svtpremium ) and tradingview profile ( https://www.tradingview.com/u/bonodi )  for further updates.

Again, just to be fair : SVTPREMIUM is NOT a crypto-trading/analysis blog!!

Bye!

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Week-end post

2018/02/03 at 6:30am Leave a comment

Equities

The most important signal for equities is an initial sign of MVO bull/bear switch. The bear surge leg is fresh ad can change early next week, however, it it’s still there mid-next week, then we eyewitness the start of a minimum 4-6 weeks of trend-change.

I hide the setups for 2D MV momentum chart – my premium members know that but show the corresponding, important signal for readers show interest in volume analysis:

2018-02-03_RUA2Dm

2D MV fakeout analysis shows a non-fake bear meaning if there is a bounce, that will be weak. Harmonics is a short-term sell with no long-term confirmation and with a possible bull node within 6-8 trading days. It means, even in short-term we have a pretty high probability for a strong correction. SSTIS is a confirmed sell and signals a bear surge. Position of V-MA on 2D timeframe is well above, meaning we have a correction only as per moment. Current 2D V-MA is 2651 on SPX.

All in all, the following scenario is the highest probability in my view:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ES2!/QG16elUv-ES-1D-TW/

Dollar

My expectation was a slight bounce and fail action for dollar. FED is in true panic: the pushed down dollar to the earth in order to save the situation for equities. They did their best in the last 1.5 year: stocks were pumped up on a very smart way. However, it’s inevitable that they are in a medium-term monetary trap for now meaning inflationary pressure has no effect and now the task of FED is to serve liquidity for the panic sell on stock-exchange and make sure there won’t be a liquidity issue would initiate an evil spiral of deflationary-pressure<>stock sell-off<>liquidity issue<>stock-price drop cycle as US had in 2008.

Harmonics suggests a short-term buy with no long-term confirmation for dollar. SSTIS is a short-term buy with a longer-term sell combined with a bear surge signal. This combination usually suggests a quick elimination of the bullish bounce / sideways consolidation and further drop later. 2D MV chart is a short-term buy with an almost exhausted long-term sell and an exhausted MVO bear surge signal.

It means, the highest probability scenario is to see dollar to fail and drop to a certain point but then a stronger bounce can start when the 2D MV longer-term sell signal exhausts.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DX2!/hXD6Mk7O-DX-1D-TW/

Gold, Miners

Gold is  a short-term sell with no long-term confirmation on harmonics. SSTIS is a confirmed sell with a fake bear setup and with a bull surge signal. It means that gold has pretty high chance to bounce any time. 2D MV chart is a confirmed sell with an MVO bull/bear surge signal.

It means:
-high odds that gold will bounce and fail in short-term
-our dollar scenario has a click: framework of expectation is seeing gold to drop after the bounce when dollar starts its bounce.
-dollar has a confirmation via a mirror move of gold meaning pretty high odds for the  bearish equity scenario.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GC2!/Y3PKtc8u-GC-1D-TW/

Miners are a short-term sell with no long-term confirmation on harmonics. SSTIS is a confirmed sell. 2D MV chart is a confirmed sell with a bear surge signal. Move of miners will be similar to gold, but due to the double correlation to gold and equities miners will get an extreme pressure and will look like below:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GDX/Q2p9PsyZ-GDX-1D-TW/

Oil

Oil is a short-term sell with no long-term confirmation on harmonics. SSTIS is a confirmed sell with a fake bear setup. It means we have a slight bounce next week at least. 2D MV chart is a confirmed sell for now.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/CL2!/L7qxRpm4-CL-1D-TW/

Bonds

Long-term bonds are shocking me: equity drop +  currency drop + long-term bonds drop signal an extreme large issue with the economy of the country where these drops occur together.  I wrote a dedicated post about this phenomenon early January ( https://smartvolume.wordpress.com/2018/01/12/12-jan-2018-before-the-bell/ ) for my premium members. That time it was an early sign, now we have a pretty strong manifestation.

Harmonics is a confirmed sell and has a bull node now. It means a kind of bounce early next week. One more click on our framework of expectation: dollar will bounce soon, equities will drop but, for a while bonds will bounce as well. I feel, we’ve put  the puzzles pretty well and our picture has a confirmation by on their corresponding details.

SSTIS is a confirmed sell with a bear surge, 2D MV chart is a confirmed sell with an MVO bear surge signal.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ZB1!/zEkQIXmd-ZB-1D-TW/

Trading update: liquidate all PM core positions as well, take profit on oil, keep  10% in. Prepare to add to the equity  short at a swing-high. Reduce bonds core to 10% at SH as well. We are mostly in cash for now, but, based on our signals I tighten the safety belt and rather sit in cash.

I will try to come back with a short crypto-post this week-end.

This post was free for your kind evaluation. It was the last free post in February.

 

 

 

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Quick update

2018/02/02 at 16:31pm Leave a comment

I had an extremely busy week, sorry for the missing intra-week post. Our traded assets are following our forecast (pop-ups lasted shorter than expected), however, I must admit that my timing was not exact. The marketvolume rollup is in progress after the EOD and I will write a week-end post. All in all, our profit-taking on PMs and T-bonds were punctual and we are sitting in cash, plus our equitiy short hedge is finally  producing money.

Cryptos follow the skeptic forecast as well, BTC reached the lower trading box you could see in my analysis. Again, BTC is still inside of the secular bull trendline on log chart.

I will try to write a short crypto post this week-end with a main focus on BTC.

Have a great week-end!

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