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2018/04/09 at 8:45am Leave a comment

The password for April, 2018 can be found at the link below:

http://www.svtpremium.com/members/newsletter/2018/20180409PWD.cfm

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06-APR-2018 Before the Bell

2018/04/06 at 8:26am 2 comments

Equities

Stocks are following our forecast. Harmonics is a short-term buy with no long-term confirmation. SSTIS is a confirmed buy with a fake bull setup, 2D MV chart is  a short-term buy with a long-term sell signal. 2D MV RUA fakeout chart shows a fake bull setup as well. Stocks are not safe to enter neither on the short, nor on the long side.

Dollar

Dollar is a confirmed buy on harmonics. SSTIS is a confirmed buy, 2D MV chart is a short-term buy with a long-term sell which potentially will flip to a confirmed bull next week. Dollar broke above of its medium-term trendline. Next bullish confirmation will be if dollar will trade above of its trading box.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DX2!/ieXGmuBF-DX-1D-TW/

Gold, Miners

Gold is a short-term sell with no long-term confirmation on harmonics. SSTIS is a confirmed sell, 2D MV chart is a short-term sell with no long-term confirmation but with an MVO bull/bear switch still on. We might see a dollar bull, and institutional traders/algos are detecting the possible deflationary pressure.

Miners have similar setups on our indicator system but have no MVO bull/bear switch on 2D MV chart.

SVT took profit on its long positions and waits for the outcome on dollar.

Oil

Oil is a short-term sell with no long-term confirmation on harmonics. SSTIS is a confirmed sell for now and the fake bull setup is in process. 2D MV chart is a short-term sell with a longer-term buy. Oil follows our forecast as well.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/CL2!/g4wuT0IZ-CL-1D-TW/

Bonds

Bonds are a short-term sell with no long-term confirmation. SSTIS is a short-term sell with a long-term buy with a fake bear setup. 2D MV chart is a short-term sell with no long-term confirmation and with an exhausted bull surge signal. Bonds 2D chart show a possible close of the current bull volume cycle and commence a bear cycle next week.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ZB1!/H99z1KgL-ZB-1D-TW/

Crypto

BTC tagged the lower stem of the large triangle consolidation, but still above. We need to keep it monitoring. We are out of BTC, so not too much to do here.

Trading update: we are mostly in cash, no trade today.

This is the last free post in April.

Have a great week-end!

 

 

 

 

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04-APR-2018 Before the Bell

2018/04/04 at 5:06am Leave a comment

 

This is a regular before the bell, mid-week update. Objective statuses from our three indicator system and their synthesis to a forecast.

Equities

Harmonics is a short-term buy with a long-term sell signal for /ES. SSTIS is a short-term buy with no long-term confirmation, 2D MV chart is a confirmed sell with a slight MVO bear surge. All in all, the bottom is not in, however, the forecast  we sketched early last week  is still in play. Both timing and target were exact. The continuation should be a slight bounce in the second half of this week, but I see more probability on the short-side than on the long: equities dropped BLOW of V-MA meaning stock market is under general bearish conditions.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ES2!/CT40AiEq-ES-1D-TW/

Just a note to Gary Cohn and Peter Navaro: market is NOT waiting for you and for Mr. Trump. Traders immediately price your statements and decisions. Believe or not, you can manipulate the market for a while, but it’s all. The main direction is NOT upon you.

Dollar

Harmonics is a confirmed buy. SSTIS is a confirmed buy with a fake bull setup. 2D MV chart is a short-term buy with a long-term sell signal.  Dollar is still inside of its one month old trading box and odds are still to see a bearish dollar in a longer-run.

Gold, Miners

Gold is a short-term sell with a long-term buy on harmonics. SSTIS is a confirmed sell with a fake bear setup, 2D MV chart is a short-term sell with a long-term buy and with an initial MVo bull/bear surge signal. Time to take profit and decrease exposure to 20%

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GC2!/Cq61jhNq-GC-1D-TW/

Miners are short-term sell with a long-term buy on harmonics. SSTIS is a confirmed sell with a fake bear setup. 2D MV chart is a short-term sell with a long-term buy signal. The MVO bull surge exhausted here as well, but I see no sign of an MVO bull/bear.

However, due to the triangle consolidation on both gold and miners+MVO bull/bear surge on gold I decided to decrease the exposure of SVT to 10% today.

Silver will be decreased today as well.

Oil, Energy

Oil is a short-term sell with no long-term confirmation on harmonics. SSTIS is a confirmed sell with a fake bear setup. 2D MV chart is an almost short-term sell with a long-term buy signal. There will be a spike-up for oil while a correction will progress, however, I’d like to lock the profit on oil as well, also will liquidate the energy bucket.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/CL2!/5dpvk23K-CL-1D-TW/

Bonds

Bonds are a short-term sell with no long-term confirmation on harmonics. SSTIS is a confirmed buy, 2D MV chart is a confirmed buy as well with a pretty large SOS candle on 2D MV chart. It’s time to reduce the bullish exposure here as well: back to 10%

Bitcoin

Price manifestation of the bull node on harmonics was extremely weak. Selling long BTC position I bought during the week-end, locking a nice profit.

Trading update:

-Gold, Miners, silver: back to 20%

-Oil, energy: back to 10%

-Bonds: back to 10%

Good luck!

Categories: Uncategorized

Week-end post

2018/04/02 at 7:29am Leave a comment

Equities

Stocks are a short-term buy on harmonics with a long-term sell signal. SSTIS is a short-term buy with no long-term confirmation. 2D MV chart is a confirmed sell with an MVo bear surge. It means that the bearish pressure will continue this week with a drop on equities.

No need to change/modify my forecast:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ES2!/tBrkYGNX-ES-1D-TW/

Dollar

Dollar is a confirmed buy on harmonics. SSTIS is a short-term buy with no long-term confirmation. 2D MV chart is a short-term buy with a longer-term sell signal. It means that dollar is still a longer-term bear for institutions.

Dollar must leave its recent trading box with a decisive signal. While it’s a bear for institutions by volume studies, its price is neutral as per moment.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DX2!/7hbVzzpD-DX-1D-TW/

Gold, Miners

Gold is a short-term sell with a long-term buy signal on harmonics. SSTIS is a short-term sell with a longer-term buy signal with a fake bear setup. It means gold will pop-up in the next few days. We had this forecast from early last week and we are in PMs even they made their expected dive. 2D MV chart is a confirmed buy with an almost exhausted bull surge. It means there was a shadow-buy even gold was correcting last week.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GC2!/wKmP4dwV-GC-1D-TW/

Gold will remain bumpy as long as there won’t be a decisive direction of dollar.

Miners are a long-term buy with a short-term sell on harmonics. SSTIS is a short-term sell with a longer-term buy signal. 2D MV chart is still a confirmed buy with a massive MVO bull surge signal.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/GDX/73HCgfCY-GDX-1D-TW/

Our metal exposure is pretty high and I will add when I have further bullish confirmation (dollar will get a clear direction).

Oil, Energy

The expected correction arrived 2 days earlier than I forecasted. Otherwise oil is still bullish.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/CL2!/lUjhVfU7-CL-1D-TW/

Energy stocks are practically about moving sideways.

Our oil/energy exposure is pretty high and I will seek for a profit-taking event in the next 5-7 trading days.

Bonds

We bought a slight bullish position for 20+y bonds close to the bottom. Bonds were at extremely low levels of V-MA, therefore I didn’t take the risk of adding more than a core position. Now we made a pretty nice sum on bonds and we have a massive MVO bull surge signal on 2D MV chart. As bonds are still below of V-Ma on 2D chart but bullish on our short-term systemas harmonics and SSTIS as well and now there will be a visual golden bullish cross (MA 20/50) I’m adding up to 50% of exposure.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ZB1!/Dpc1HxmA-ZB-1D-TW/

Crypto

Bitcoin had a textbook-sample bull node on harmonics 2 days ago. Now the price manifestation is there. BTC was extremely overbought and as I warned you this asset collapsed. Maybe it’s a new thing for other, but I was the eyewitness the 2008 crisis, the collapse of silver and miners, and now bitcoin. We took profit in time and since, we nibble only at the lowest points and a small portion only. Please bear in mind: BTC STILL values 7k USD after the collapse meaning in spite of all the misery happened with the blockhain  based cripto-currency complex, it’s still strong and the industry it represents is still vital. As a trader I will only get in massively, if I see a strong buy signal. As BTC fell out of its secular bull price channel, only short, few days of trades will happen. Now I’m in and will get out at swing-high.

On top of the clear bull node setup on harmonics, I received a buy signal just today on my other system, and a third system is to give a buy signal within 2 trading days. So, I’m in. Again, a moderate position only.

As you can see, BTC is in an enermous triangle consolidation phase (typical shock pattern). It’s a kind of negotiation will be used as a foundation of any further development.
If prices will break out and trade above the triangle, then the price we eyewitness now will be an extremely strong basis and we will see prices above. If the outcome is contrary, then BTC will collapse and drop. The best strategy in my view is to stick on my method, seek for a clear buy and then make a short-term trade as long as there won’t be a resolution of the triangle setup. The time of that is the cross of the two stems (end of May)

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/mPitmcCO-BTCUSD/

Good luck!

 

Trading update: add bonds 20+y to 50% long at open, prepare mentally for oil/energy exit, prepare mentally for equity long buy.

 

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