Week-end post

2017/08/06 at 16:27pm Leave a comment

Source: Week-end post

Categories: Uncategorized

Protected: Week-end post

2017/08/06 at 16:00pm Enter your password to view comments.

This content is password protected. To view it please enter your password below:

Categories: Uncategorized

Password for premium members

2017/08/06 at 2:54am Leave a comment

The August password for SVT premium members can be found at:

http://www.svtpremium.com/members/newsletter/2017/20170806PWD.cfm

Categories: Uncategorized

04-AUG-2017 Before the Bell

2017/08/04 at 4:31am Leave a comment

Our traded assets are moving into their forecasted directions. I have not too much to say today, therefore I only focus on some developments might need attention in the future or delivered an important signal.

Focus is still on dollar. The green money just collapsing, the bearish price channel is narrowing. We had 2 days of hesitation at the last bull node but that node failed again.  As I said, from this level the next, extremely important target of dollar is the bottom of the recent longer-term trading-box: 91.9 on $DXY:

2017-08-04_USD1D

Considering the weak impact of inflation on equities (stocks don’t produce a high, rather stagnate in the last week). The bounce of dollar is almost sure.

The most important signal we have has just developed yesterday: an MVO bull/bear switch on 2D MCV chart for equities. Usually this  signal is a sign of a stronger correction. We will monitor this formation in August and will set targets according to our signals. Targets are /ES 2441 first, then 2373. We have 2 weeks left for the Opex and I feel, August will be a bear trap again preparing a stronger and deeper dive during the autumn.

The other, important signal is an above V-MA 2D confirmation on 20+y bonds together with a confirmed buy on 2D timeframe.  These signals are delivered together with a double-bottom formation and breaking a short-term bearish trendline. As you know, I’m long on bonds months ago and now it’s time to add: SVT will fill its long bond exposure to 80%.

2017-08-04_B30P1DTS

Chart above is /ZB 1D TS

Oil is behaving as per our forecast. We took profit of our energy and oil stakes and waiting for a better position to enter.

Gold and miners are correcting in front of the collapsing dollar. We expected this correction and took profit on our silver longs. Now we will wait for a setup to buy, maybe after dollar is done with its contra-bull.

Trading update: fill bonds bucket to 80%

Have a great week-end!!!

This post was free, feel free to share following posts in AUG will be for premium members only.

 

Categories: Uncategorized

02-AUG-2017 Before the Bell

2017/08/02 at 2:55am Leave a comment

Equities

Stocks are a short-term sell with long-term confirmation on harmonics with a bear node expected in 2-3 working days. SSTIS is a confirmed sell with a fake bear setup. 2D MV chart is a short-term sell with a long-term buy with an MVO bull surge. Position of stocks is well-above of V-MA. The expected price manifestation of the bear node will arrive 1-2 days after the bear node will be formed and target of /ES will be 2450. However, in the short period (until the bear node is formed) stocks will go up, maybe produce a new ATH.

2017-08-02_ES1DTS

 

Dollar

Dollar reached its forecasted target. Next target is $DXY 91.8. Dollar formed a perfect bull node as we expected and made a swing-low for now. My forecast was to see a bounce for a short period but then dollar will fail and go lower. Harmonics is a confirmed sell, SSTIS is a confirmed sell, 2D MV chart is a confirmed sell with an MVO bear surge signal. It might happen that dollar will generate a slight sideways move only for a few days, but then will go further down.

Dollar is well below of its V-MA

Gold, Miners

Gold will generate a short-term sell signal with no long-term confirmation on harmonics. Primary target of /GC will be 1260.  SSTIS is a short-term sell with no long-term confirmation, 2D MV chart is a confirmed buy with an MVO bull surge: gold is mirroring the dollar. Position of gold became above V-MA meaning general bullish market conditions.

Miners are almost a short-term sell signal on harmonics with a loner-term buy. SSTIS is a short-term sell with no long-term confirmation and a fake bear setup.  2D MV chart is a confirmed buy with a bull surge signal.

The highest probability scenario for miners as below:

2017-08-02_GDX1DTS

Oil

The black gold is a short-term sell with no long-term confirmation on harmonics. SSTIS is a confirmed buy with a fake bear setup. 2D MV chart is a confirmed buy with a bull surge signal. Position of oil is below V-MA.

As oil is overbought and gave a short-term sell signal, the best thing is to wait for a cleaner signal.

Trading update: no trade today, hold existing stakes.

This post is free, please share at your  will.

 

 

Categories: FREE, Uncategorized Tags:

Week-end post

2017/07/31 at 2:01am Leave a comment

We are on track, things happen as per out forecast and we took profit last Friday. Now the task is sit  patiently and check how the liquidity trap will manifest and what will be the reaction of FED in August.

As all the story is about liquidity trap, I change the usual order to show dollar first and then put all our assets into the context dollar shows us.

Dollar

The acceleration channel is still a strong boundary for dollar. We can see some hesitation for a few days within the channel but then FED interacts and that helps equities to levitate or produce  a new high. These highs are fundamentally fake, no real value or production behind, however, the technique is known well, also will put the US government and taxpayers into an extremely expensive loan (bonds) payback situation via commodity spiral and expensive production/import. The benefit of inflation is positive in short term but generates a mountain of issues in a long-term We can clearly state that this level of manipulation is an old-fashioned, conservative technique, also hides more danger than benefit as can ignite a currency war.

Trump failed and will drag his country down in the next few years; he could pretend to know what to do in a critical situation during the election regarding to the economical situation, but he is lack of understanding of global dependencies and consequences of strong patriotism. I was neutral about him so far but now my statement is based on facts and figures and has no emotional or political bindings.

Anyway, our role is to ride this all situation and try to make some money on the upcoming events. The sequence of events are well-known based on history, the only question is timing. Former is a fundamental knowledge, latter is understanding assets, their behaviors and using our proprietary signals try to trade the main trends will  be formed in the upcoming 1-2 years.

Back to trading, dollar failed at its last support and will form a new bull node within 2-3 trading days. Harmonics signals a short-term buy with no long-term confirmation yet. As we discussed, next target is 93.01 on $DXY.

SSTIS is neutral and shows no buy signal as per moment. 2D MV chart is a confirmed buy and shows a near-exhaustion state of the recent MVO bear surge.

Let me show you the highest probability scenario:

2017-07-31_USD1DTS

As you can see, I counted in the slight bullish signal on harmonics and the bull node to come, also the neutral status of SSTIS. 2D MV chart is still a bear, therefore my best bet is to see the bounce to fail and dollar will continue its way down.

Let me show you the larger picture of dollar:

2017-07-31_USD1Db

So, as you can see, dollar has place to dive, even my expectation is a liquidity trap to arrive soon. Trump and his fellows will let the dollar down, further down, making the export cheaper for buyers -they believe-, so it’s a match with his patriotic policy. Also, for a while fresh bonds will produce near-zero or negative return, which also a benefit in a 1-2 years of scenario, however, if there will be a loss on profit for US bond buyers and they burn their fingers with it, their won’t buy bonds, only if bonds rates will skyrocket….

As we know China holds a large sum of US bonds, and if they lose on a business, they won’t do that again…

Gold, Miners

In front of the sharp decline of dollar both gold and miners should skyrocket, meaning 2-4% days for gold, 3-6% days for miners and silver. However, they are showing meandering nature and rather suggest that PM traders are waiting for a bouncing dollar to load further bullish stakes.

My note about dollar became…..sesquipedalian, so from now on, I will only read and tell the indicators from my system:

Gold is a confirmed buy on harmonics with overbought status. SSTIS is a confirmed buy with a bull surge, harmonics is a confirmed buy with an MVO bull surge signal. Gold is to reach the zone of /GC 1290s soon but then, as dollar will bounce, the highest probabilit scenario is a correction. Gold is still at V-MA on 2D MV chart meaning a rather neutral status in a longer-term.

Miners follow our forecast, setups are similar to gold, no need to change our few weeks old forecast:

2017-07-31_GDX1DTS

Setup of miners and silver are similar to gold.

Equities

Stocks are a short-term sell with no long-term confirmation on harmonics, SSTIS is a confirmed sell with a fake bear setup, 2D MV chart gave a short-term sell with no long-term confirmation with an MVO bull surge. It means even if we  will see a correction this week, stocks will revive as the correction will be only due to an institutional profit-taking even will generate the MVO bull surge to eliminate and then the bull -with a less powerful momentum- will revive. Position of stocks is above V-MA

Oil

Oil is extremely overbought on harmonics, otherwise a confirmed buy. SSTIS is a confirmed buy with a bull surge and a confirmed buy with an MVO bull surge on 2D MV chart. Position of oil is still below V-MA.

We took profit for both silver and oil. Rest of our PM holdings are in and I will wait with any further profit-taking.

Trading update: no trade today.

Have a great week!

This post is free, please share at your will.

Categories: FREE Tags:

Protected: 28-JUL-2017 Before the Bell

2017/07/28 at 2:07am Enter your password to view comments.

This content is password protected. To view it please enter your password below:

Categories: Uncategorized